Published September 24, 2026 in Market Update

Modesto bidding wars ended July 11. Thirty-four homes sold since.

By Rebeca Gamon

Real estate, Closed Qtr 3 YTD

People say bidding wars are just part of buying a home right now. You hear it at open houses. You hear it from friends who bought two years ago. The story goes: price it right and you will get offers over asking, maybe a few of them. I pulled every single-family detached home that sold through September 18, 2026, and here is what the numbers actually say.

The last bidding war closed on July 11. Nothing like it has happened since.

I count a bidding war the same way every time: a single-family detached home that sold 3% or more over what the seller first asked. Brand new builds are left out, because their price goes up with upgrades and that is a different thing. By that count, five homes in this quarter's data had a real bidding war. The biggest one sold $30,100 over asking. The last one went under contract July 11, and it sold $13,500 over asking.

Since July 11, thirty-four single-family detached homes have gone under contract and closed. Not one of them sold 3% or more over its first price. That is 69 days without a single bidding war in these markets.

One fair warning: the file only shows what a home sold for once the sale closes. Homes that went under contract in the last few weeks may not have closed yet, so they are not counted. That could change the picture a little. But 69 days is a long stretch, and the trend in August is clear.

July and August tell two different stories.

In July, 51 single-family detached homes sold. The typical one took 55 days and sold for exactly what the seller first asked. In August, 38 homes sold. The typical one took 81 days and sold for 99.2% of what the seller first asked. That 0.8% gap sounds small, but it is real money off the price a seller hoped for.

The shift shows up in the price ranges too. Under $450,000, more than 7 in 10 homes sold at or over their asking price. In the $450,000 to $500,000 range, only 31.3% did. That is the sharpest drop of any range in the file. If your home sits in that middle band, the numbers say buyers are pushing back harder there than anywhere else.

What this means if you are selling or buying right now.

If you are selling in Modesto, the market is still paying full price on homes priced well. The typical sold home got 100% of its last asking price through September 18, 2026. But the window for a bidding war has closed, at least for now. The last one went under contract July 11. Homes that sold in their first month got 100.2% of their first price. Homes that sat into month four got 100% too, but they waited 99 days to get there. Pricing sharp from day one still matters more than hoping for a war. Nationally, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.95% as of September 17, 2026, up from 6.76% the week before, according to Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey. That is nearly a full point higher than the 6.26% buyers faced a year ago, and it is shaping what buyers can afford to offer.

If you are buying, the shift is real but do not read it as a collapse. Homes are still selling. The typical home took 73 days and sold at 100% of asking. You have more room to negotiate than you did in July, especially in the $450,000 to $500,000 range where only 31.3% of homes sold at or over asking. Modesto is its own market with its own prices and its own pace, so the street and the neighborhood still matter when you are reading comps. NAR reports that national inventory has grown to 4.9 months of supply, the highest in over ten years. Locally, that means more choices and less pressure than buyers faced a few months ago. Text me if you want a full breakdown of what is happening in the rest of the Central Valley. I will send you the numbers.