Published October 2, 2026 in Market Update

Modesto sales rose even with fewer homes for sale

By Rebeca Gamon

Real estate, Modesto

More homes sold. Fewer were available to buy. That combination tells you something important about timing and options right now in Modesto.

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 363 homes sold across Modesto in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is up 13.1% from the same three months in 2025. At the same time, homes for sale dropped to 262, down 21.8% from a year before. Realtor.com reported that active listings topped 1.16 million nationally in September 2026. Modesto moved the opposite direction.

Rates matter here too. CNBC reported the average 30-year fixed rate rose to 7.30% as of September 30, 2026. Mortgage News Daily put it at 7.58% on that same Tuesday. Realtor.com reported rates climbed above 7% for the first time since January 2025. Higher rates slow some buyers. In Modesto, sales still rose.

What each part of Modesto did

Modesto is not one market. Each ZIP code moved differently in the three months ending July 31, 2026. Here is what the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted.

Speed: how fast homes went under contract

In 95350, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted a median of 17 days on market, 3 days shorter than a year before. More than half of homes, 51.3%, went under contract within two weeks of listing. That share is up 8.1 points from a year ago.

In 95355, the median was 18 days, unchanged from a year before. In 95357, it was 27 days, 13 days longer than last year. In 95356, it was 40 days, 6 days longer. Speed is not the same across Modesto.

Supply is thin, and getting thinner

Months of supply measures how long it would take to sell every home currently listed, at the current pace. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put it at 2.3 months in 95350, down 0.9 months from a year before. In 95356 it was 1.9 months, down 1.8 months. In 95357 it was 2 months, down 0.9 months. In 95355 it was 2.4 months, down 0.5 months.

New listings across all four Modesto ZIPs totaled 483 in the three months ending July 31, 2026, down 1% from a year before. Nationally, Realtor.com reported that 20.8% of listings took a price cut in September 2026, the highest share since October 2022. In Modesto, sellers were still getting close to their asking price. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the sale-to-list ratio at 99.8% in 95350 and 99.6% in 95355.

Pending sales point forward

Pending sales show what is under contract but not yet closed. They give you a read on where closings are headed. Across Modesto, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 422 pending sales in the three months ending July 31, 2026, up 25.2% from a year before.

95355 had 158 pending sales, up 41.1%. 95357 had 52, up 100%. 95356 had 93, up 25.7%. 95350 had 119, down 4.8%. Each ZIP tells its own story.

What this means for you

If you are selling, less supply means less competition. That is true across Modesto right now.

If you are buying, less supply means fewer choices. Homes in 95350 and 95355 moved fast. More than 4 in 10 homes in 95355 sold above list price, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 43.4%.

If you are a first-time buyer, the median in 95350 was $430,000 in the three months ending July 31, 2026, the lowest of the four ZIPs. Prices there dipped 1.7% from a year before. That is a small move, but it is real.

If you are downsizing, Northgate in 95350 has single-story ranch homes on larger lots with no HOA. That is a real fit for buyers who want one level and room to breathe.

If you are an investor, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counts sales by ZIP, not by street. In Modesto, and especially in parts of Stockton where I also work, one block can read very differently from the ZIP as a whole. Comps matter at the street level.