One part of Modesto moved much faster than another
Here is the number that changes everything about how you price or offer in Modesto right now.
The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted homes across four ZIP codes in Modesto for the three months ending August 31, 2026. In 95350, 53.3% of homes went under contract within two weeks of listing. In 95357, that share was 23.9%. Same city, same period, very different pace.
That gap matters. If you are a seller in 95350, you have real leverage. If you are a seller in 95357, buyers have more time, and a price that is off by even a little will sit.
Speed, ZIP by ZIP
Days on market tells the same story from a different angle.
95350 moved in a median of 18 days, 7 days shorter than the same period last year, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. 95356 sat for a median of 41 days, 2 days longer than a year before. 95357 came in at 30 days, 8 days longer than last year.
Faster days do not always mean higher prices. Read those two things together.
Price, ZIP by ZIP
| 95350 | 95355 | 95356 | 95357 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $434,500 | $505,000 | $495,000 | $562,000 |
| Year-over-year change | up 0.8% | up 7% | down 12.6% | up 13.7% |
95357 had the highest median sale price at $562,000, up 13.7% year over year, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. But it also had the slowest two-week contract rate, at 23.9%. 95356 had the second-highest median at $495,000, yet its price fell 12.6% from a year before. Price and speed do not move in the same direction in every ZIP.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.6% year over year through July 2026. Parts of Modesto beat that. Parts did not.
What sellers are getting at the close
All four ZIPs came in close to list price. That means sellers who priced right got very close to what they asked. The gap between 99.7% and 98.5% sounds small, but on a $500,000 home it is $6,000.
Homes that sold above list price
Above-list sales are one sign of real competition.
95355 led, with 39.4% of homes selling above list, up 8.2 points from a year before. 95357 was the only ZIP where that share fell, dropping 6.3 points to 29.4%, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator.
Supply and new listings
Supply is still tight across Modesto.
New listings in 95357 jumped 79.3% from a year before, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. That is the biggest supply increase of any ZIP here. More choices for buyers in 95357 helps explain why homes there took longer to go under contract.
New listings in 95356 fell 17% from a year before. Fewer homes came to market there, yet days on market still rose. That tells you condition and price matter just as much as supply.
The rate backdrop
CNBC reported the average contract rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage with a conforming loan balance reached 7.49% as of October 7, 2026. Realtor.com reported rates climbed above 7% for the first time since January 2025 as of September 30, 2026. Buyers are feeling that. Realtor.com also reported 20.8% of listings nationally took a price cut in September 2026, the highest share since October 2022. Modesto is not immune to that pressure.
If you are buying, a higher rate changes your monthly cost more than a small price move does. Run the numbers on the actual rate you qualify for, not a headline average.
What this means for you
Here is what I keep saying to sellers right now.
Your ZIP code is not your whole story. Your street, your condition and your price are what move the needle.
In 95350, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 108 homes sold and 53.3% under contract within two weeks. Price it right and you have a real chance at a fast close and multiple looks.
In 95357, 23.9% went under contract within two weeks, down 15.4 points from a year before. Buyers there have more time. Miss on price and you will feel it.
In 95355, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 137 homes sold, the highest of any single ZIP here, with a median of 21 days and 39.4% selling above list. That is a market where a well-priced home still draws real interest.
In 95356, sales volume rose 27.3% from a year before even as the median price fell 12.6%. More homes sold, but sellers gave more ground on price to make it happen.
- The three months ending August 31, 2026 showed Modesto moving at four different speeds across four ZIPs.
- 95350 was the fastest, with 53.3% of homes under contract in two weeks.
- 95357 was the slowest, at 23.9%, with days on market rising 8 days from a year before.
- The right plan depends on which ZIP your home sits in, and sometimes which block.
Your next step
(925) 202-6326Text me your address and I will send back where your Modesto home stands on that two-week contract rate, against what actually sold in your ZIP. Takes a day, costs nothing.
Text me- Real Estate Data Aggregator numbers for ZIPs 95350, 95356, 95357 and 95355, the three months ending August 31, 2026, compared with the same months of 2025. Real Estate Data Aggregator last updated them on Oct 7, 2026.
- Federal Housing Finance Agency: FHFA House Price Index® Up 0.3 Percent in July; Up 2.6 Percent from Last Year | FHFA, Sep 29, 2026
- Redfin: Soft September Jobs Report May Give Fed Reason to Pause Rate Hikes, Slowing Ascent of Mortgage Rates, Oct 2, 2026
- Realtor.com: September 2026 Monthly Housing Trends: Price Cuts Hit 4-Year Highs as Mortgage Rates Top 7%, Sep 30, 2026
- Realtor.com: August 2026 Rental Report: Rents Fall for 37th Straight Month as Concessions Give Renters More Leverage, Sep 17, 2026
- CNBC: Refinance demand is now half what it was a year ago, as mortgage rates rise again, Oct 7, 2026